Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 140,446
2 Rhode Island 138,970
3 South Dakota 138,163
4 Utah 123,541
5 Tennessee 121,478
6 Arizona 118,175
7 Iowa 115,220
8 Nebraska 113,259
9 Oklahoma 113,064
10 Wisconsin 113,025
11 South Carolina 111,864
12 New Jersey 111,572
13 Arkansas 111,007
14 Alabama 107,421
15 Indiana 106,890
16 Kansas 106,412
17 Delaware 106,394
18 Illinois 104,913
19 Idaho 104,697
20 New York 104,642
21 Mississippi 104,550
22 Florida 103,239
23 Nevada 101,970
24 Montana 101,426
25 Minnesota 101,176
26 Georgia 100,927
27 Wyoming 100,012
28 Kentucky 99,663
29 Texas 99,411
30 Massachusetts 99,329
31 Louisiana 98,280
32 Missouri 97,516
33 Connecticut 94,617
34 California 94,558
35 New Mexico 93,950
36 North Carolina 92,553
37 Michigan 92,408
38 Alaska 91,729
39 Ohio 91,304
40 Pennsylvania 89,429
41 Colorado 88,232
42 West Virginia 84,729
43 Virginia 76,886
44 Maryland 73,553
45 New Hampshire 69,281
46 District of Columbia 67,263
47 Washington 52,579
48 Puerto Rico 51,242
49 Maine 44,955
50 Oregon 43,160
51 Vermont 36,338
52 Hawaii 22,881

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 393
2 Colorado 312
3 Rhode Island 281
4 Puerto Rico 270
5 Alaska 267
6 Connecticut 240
7 Pennsylvania 233
8 Delaware 231
9 Minnesota 226
10 North Carolina 216
11 Florida 208
12 Maine 202
13 Illinois 178
14 New York 178
15 Oregon 166
16 New Hampshire 162
17 Washington 153
18 Idaho 149
19 North Dakota 149
20 Massachusetts 147
21 Tennessee 145
22 West Virginia 145
23 Nevada 134
24 New Mexico 123
25 District of Columbia 119
26 Maryland 118
27 Indiana 116
28 Virginia 114
29 South Carolina 112
30 Texas 111
31 Ohio 109
32 Wisconsin 107
33 Wyoming 107
34 Vermont 104
35 Kentucky 97
36 Louisiana 96
37 Arizona 95
38 Georgia 94
39 South Dakota 91
40 Mississippi 90
41 Utah 88
42 Montana 87
43 Nebraska 87
44 Iowa 84
45 Oklahoma 71
46 Missouri 69
47 Alabama 54
48 Hawaii 54
49 Kansas 53
50 California 49
51 Arkansas 39
52 New Jersey -194

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,866
2 New York 2,651
3 Massachusetts 2,548
4 Rhode Island 2,514
5 Mississippi 2,415
6 Arizona 2,373
7 Connecticut 2,262
8 Louisiana 2,226
9 South Dakota 2,216
10 Alabama 2,213
11 Pennsylvania 2,040
12 North Dakota 1,990
13 Indiana 1,974
14 New Mexico 1,927
15 Illinois 1,907
16 Arkansas 1,897
17 Iowa 1,879
18 Michigan 1,857
19 South Carolina 1,832
20 Georgia 1,827
21 Nevada 1,767
22 Tennessee 1,766
23 Texas 1,731
24 Kansas 1,719
25 Oklahoma 1,697
26 Delaware 1,660
27 Ohio 1,641
28 Florida 1,627
29 District of Columbia 1,558
30 California 1,555
31 Missouri 1,501
32 West Virginia 1,485
33 Kentucky 1,476
34 Montana 1,465
35 Maryland 1,437
36 Wisconsin 1,287
37 Minnesota 1,271
38 Virginia 1,262
39 Nebraska 1,222
40 Wyoming 1,221
41 North Carolina 1,202
42 Idaho 1,143
43 Colorado 1,111
44 New Hampshire 951
45 Washington 723
46 Puerto Rico 713
47 Utah 681
48 Oregon 593
49 Maine 578
50 Alaska 451
51 Vermont 392
52 Hawaii 336

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Alaska 5
2 Michigan 5
3 Kentucky 3
4 New Jersey 3
5 Virginia 3
6 Florida 2
7 Maryland 2
8 Missouri 2
9 Nevada 2
10 New Hampshire 2
11 New Mexico 2
12 New York 2
13 Pennsylvania 2
14 Colorado 1
15 Connecticut 1
16 Georgia 1
17 Idaho 1
18 Illinois 1
19 Indiana 1
20 Louisiana 1
21 Maine 1
22 Massachusetts 1
23 Minnesota 1
24 Mississippi 1
25 Nebraska 1
26 North Carolina 1
27 Ohio 1
28 Puerto Rico 1
29 Rhode Island 1
30 South Carolina 1
31 South Dakota 1
32 Tennessee 1
33 Texas 1
34 Washington 1
35 Wisconsin 1
36 Wyoming 1
37 Alabama 0
38 Arizona 0
39 Arkansas 0
40 California 0
41 Delaware 0
42 District of Columbia 0
43 Hawaii 0
44 Iowa 0
45 Kansas 0
46 Montana 0
47 North Dakota 0
48 Oklahoma 0
49 Oregon 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 West Virginia -28

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 357,752 1 99
Crowley Colorado 356,542 2 99
Bent Colorado 271,293 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 247,963 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,700 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 141,069 184 94
Richland South Carolina 110,052 996 68
York South Carolina 108,232 1063 66
Orange California 84,970 2164 31
Pierce Washington 53,486 2880 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,555 1821 42
Davidson Tennessee 1,338 2074 33
York South Carolina 1,324 2095 33
Richland South Carolina 1,301 2117 32
Pierce Washington 709 2745 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons